Archive
24.10 - 26.10
Lviv Security Forum
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Peace on the winner’s terms is the goal of every war.

Wars are no longer aiming at total destruction. Nowadays, it’s not enough to control the territory and natural resources. The fight is for the will of the people and the results of their intellectual work.

Surrendering weapons is not necessary for capitulation. Controlling media, electricity, gas, and water is the most effective weapon of mass destruction.

Do you want peace under your conditions? Remember who is your threat. Don’t let your enemy control your resources and your will.

October, 24 (Wednesday)
Day 1
18.00
Opening ceremony
Venue: Restaurant Park Art of Rest, Lviv, Vitovskoho Str., 43 A
18.00 – 18.40
Cocktail
18.40
Welcoming the participants
Daniel Seiberling, Representative of Hanns Seidel Foundation in Ukraine
18.50 – 19.30
Dinner
19.30 – 20.45
Main speech of the forum “Economy of war or the war of economies”
Speaker: Edward Lucas, writer, journalist, senior fellow at CEPA (USA)

Presentation of speaker by co-chair of organizing committee Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges

20.45
Desert, informal communication
Upon invitation only (speakers + honorable guests)
08.00 – 09.00
Welcome coffee, registration
09.00 – 09.20
Introductory speeches
Oksana Syroyid, Deputy Speaker of the Parliament

Ben Hodges, Lt Gen Ret US Army

Andriy Sadovyy, Mayor of Lviv

Fr. Bohdan Prakh, PhD, Rector of Ukraine Catholic University

09.20 – 09.40
Presentation of CEPA report on Nord Stream 2
Speaker: Reka Szemerkenyi, Vice President of CEPA (USA)
09.40 – 11.00
Discussion Dependency or Vulnerability
Moderator: Oleksandr Sushko, Executive Director of International Renaissance Foundation (Ukraine)

1. Wojciech Jakóbik, energy expert (Poland)
2. Anke Schmidt –Felzmann, FPRI Baltic Sea Fellow and ThinkVisegrad Fellow at the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) (Sweden)
3. Mykhaylo Honchar, Center for Global Studies “Strategy ХХІ” (Ukraine)
4. Daniel Seiberling, Representative of Hanns Seidel Foundation in Ukraine (Germany)
5. Martin Vladimirov, Analyst at Center for democracy studies (Bulgaria)

11.00 – 11.40
Coffee break
11.00 – 11.40
Press-conference of the Co-chairs of the organizing committee of the forum
Venue: Park Room, ground floor

Oksana Syroyid, Deputy Speaker of the Parliament

Ben Hodges, Lt Gen Ret US Army

11.40 – 12.30
Panel discussion: Situation in Azov Sea – economic, security and social challenge
Moderator: Ben Hodges, Lt Gen Ret US Army (USA)

1. Glen Howard, President of Jamestown foundation (USA)
2. Ihor Kabanenko, President of UA.RPA (Ukraine)
3. Petro Tsygykal, The Head of State Boarder Service (Ukraine)

12.30 – 14.00
Lunch
14.00 – 15.15
Panel discussion: Propaganda – Leading asymmetric wars
Moderator: Ms. Barbora Moronkova, Director at NATO Information and Documentation Centre, Kyiv (Slovak Republic)

1. Veronika Vichova, European Values Foundation (Czech Republic)
2. Nerijus Maliukevičius, Vilnus Institute of International Relations and Political Science (Lithuania)
3. Serhiy Harmash, editor in chief of internet newspaper Ostrov (Ukraine)
4. Mykhaylo Basarab, political expert (Ukraine)
5. Victor Rud, the Chair of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of Ukrainian American Bar Association (USA)

15.15 – 16.00
Coffee break
16.00 – 17.15
Panel: Policy towards occupied territories: how to make maintenance difficult for aggressor, how to prevent new grey zones evolving
Moderator: Denis Kazanskyi, journalist, blogger (Ukraine)

1. Giorgi Kandelaki, Member of Parliament (Georgia)
2. Dovilė Jakniūnaitė, Prof. Institute of International Relations and Political Science Vilnius University (Lithuania)
3. Rosian Vasiloi, Security Analyst, Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (Moldova)
4. Nataliya Ishchenko, journalist (Ukraine)
5. Roman Bezsmertnyi, diplomat, politician (Ukraine)

17.45
Transfer to dinner
19.00
Informal dinner
Venue:Museum and culture center of bier history “Lvivarnya”, Kleparivska Str., 18

Entry with forum beige only

Presentation of film “Short Hystory of Western Civilization” by Serhiy Savchenko

09.00 – 10.00
Youth security panel: How Ukraine can become a strong geopolitical actor in view of current security challenges
Moderator: Dmytro Sherengovskyi, PhD, Head of academic department UCU (Ukraine)

Participants:
1. Halyna Herasym,Ukrainian Catholic University;
2. Lesya Ryabus, Taras Shevchenko National University Chernihiv Collegium;
3. Mariya Vladymyrova, European university Viadrina in Berlin;
4. Serhii Baglai, National university of Kyiv Mohyla Academy;
5. Anastasiya Koberska, Vasyl Stus Donetsk National University;

09.00 – 10.00
Press conference of Forum Special guest Edward Lucas
Venue: Park Room, ground floor
10.00 – 11.30
Panel discussion: Building effective army model in current security conditions
Moderator:Dmytro Ferents, Hromadske Radio (Ukraine)

1. Glen Grant, Former Colonel at British Army (UK)
2. Shota Gvineria, Economic Policy Research Center (Georgia)
3. Mark Voyger, Baltic Defence College, Department of Political and Strategic Studies, Eastern European and Russian Studies (Estonia)
4. Pavlo Rozhko, Col. Ukrainian Armed Forces (Ukraine)
5. Stepan Yakymyak, Ivan Chernyakhovskyi national defence university, chair of naval forces department, captain (Ukraine)

11.30 – 12.00
Coffee break
12.00 – 13.30
What defence means as a current concept – Security as cornerstone of state governance
Moderator: Bruno Lete, Senior Fellow GMF ( Belgium)

1. Vladimir Socor, Senior Fellow of the Jamestown Foundation (USA/Germany)
2. Roland Freundenstein, Deputy Director and Head of Research at Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies (Belgium)
3. Steven Blockmans, Senior Research Fellow and Head of EU Foreign Policy Unit, CEPS (Belgium)
4. Serhiy Datsyuk, political expert (Ukraine)

13.30 – 14.15
Closing Session
Moderator: Oksana Syroid, Deputy Speaker of the Parliament

1. Ben Hodges, Lt Gen Ret US Army (USA)
2. Henning Senger, Deputy Head of Department for European and Transatlantic Dialogue, hanns Seidel Foundation (Germany)
3. Oleksandr Sushko, Executive Director of International Renaissance Foundation (Ukraine)
4. Bruno Lete, Senior Fellow GMF (Belgium)
5. Christian Holm Barenfeld, Board Member of the Jarl Hjalmarson Foundation (Sweden)

14.15 – 15.15
Reception

Speakers

Pavlo Rozhko

lieutenant colonel, Head of the Training Center of the  International Peacekeeping and Security Center to Hetman Petro Sahaidachny National Army Academy (Ukraine)

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Pavlo Rozhko, lieutenant colonel, was born in Dresden in the family of an serviceman. In 2000 he graduated from the Kharkiv Institute of tank troops named after the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. After the Institute he served in the army in the ranks from platoon commander to batallion commander. In 2013 he graduated from the Ivan Chernyakhovsky National Defense University (Ukraine). Since 2015 until now he is the Head of the Training Center of the International Peacekeeping and Security Center to Hetman Petro Sahaidachny National Army Academy (Ukraine).

Stepan Yakymyak

Head of the Naval Forces department of the National Defense University of Ukraine

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Stepan Yakymyak is the Head of the Naval Forces department of the National Defense University of Ukraine, Associate Professor, he holds a master degree in State Military Management and a PhD in Military Sciences. He served on ships of the Black Sea Fleet in USSR, in the Headquarters of the Anti-Terrorist Operation on the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. During the service he participated in military operations in the territory of Georgia in 1991 and in the territory of Ukraine in 2015-2016, took part in the development of the strategic planning of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2005-2018 and scientific grounding of the naval defense in 2014-2018.

Martin Vladimirov

energy security expert, Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) (Bulgaria)

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Martin Vladimirov is an energy security expert specializing in natural gas and renewables markets at the European policy think tank, Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD). His work at CSD focuses on analysis of the energy security and governance risks in Europe, political risk and international security. Before joining CSD, Mr. Vladimirov worked as an oil and gas consultant at the The Oil and Gas Year, where he worked in Turkey, Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia. Previously, he worked as an energy and economic analyst for CEE Market Watch, where he was producing intra-daily analyses of economic and energy issues for Iran and Central Asia. Meanwhile, he has been a remote political risk analyst for IHS Global and Argus Media writing assessment briefs for Bulgaria, the Balkans, South Caucasus and Central Asia on energy and political issues. He holds a Master’s degree from the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University. He has written several academic publications, multiple policy reports and is the co-author of two recent books on Russian influence including the Kremlin Playbook: Understanding Russian Influence in Central and Eastern Europe and the upcoming The Russian Economic Grip on Central and Eastern Europe.

 

Sergii Datsiuk

philosopher, theorist, thinker, publicist, blogger (Ukraine)

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Sergii Datsiuk is the author of 7 books – theoretical works on fundamental philosophy, theory of ontology, logic, semiology, semantics, structural linguistics, artificial intelligence, communication theory, theory of politics (‘Theory of Virtual Reality” (2008), “Ontologization” (2009), “Horizons of Constructivism” (2010), “Theory of Perspectives” (2011), “The Complex New World” (2012), “Intellectual Politics” (2010), “Moment of Philosophy” (2013). After graduating from the Taras Shevchenko Kyiv State University in 1991, he has worked in consulting and political decisions expertise. Since 2002 works as a Consultant at the Strategic Consulting Corporation «Gardarica». Since 2018 co-founder of Foundation For Future.

 

Roman Bezsmertnyi

politician and diplomat

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Roman Bezsmertnyi, politician and diplomat, one of the authors of the Constitution of Ukraine, PhD in political sciences
Roman Bezsmertnyi was born November 15, 1965 in Kyiv region. Peoples Deputy of Ukraine of several convocations. In 2005, he was the Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine. In 2007-2008, he worked as the deputy head of the Secretariat of the President of Ukraine. From February 2010 till June 2011 he served as the Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador of Ukraine to Belarus. During 2015-16 he was the representative of Ukraine
in the political subgroup of the Tripartite Contact Group on the Peaceful Settlement of the Situation in the East of Ukraine. Non-party.

Wojciech Jakóbik

Energy expert (Poland)

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Since 2013, Wojciech Jakóbik is an analyst at the Jagiellonian Institute think tank based in Warsaw and the co-founder and Editor in Chief of BiznesAlert.pl, an information and analysis web-publication in Poland. He received his bachelor degree in Political Science and master degree in International Relations from Jagiellonian University. Jakóbik’s analysis and comments are regularly used on Poland’s most popular media outlets.

Veronika Víchová

Analyst and a Coordinator of the Kremlin Watch Program at the European Values Think-Tank (Czech Republic)

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Veronika Víchová is an Analyst and a Coordinator of the Kremlin Watch Program at the European Values Think-Tank. She co-authored a study on how Kremlin propaganda portrays European leaders which was published by The Atlantic Council and an Overview of countermeasures by the EU28 to the Kremlin´s influence operations. She compiles the Kremlin Watch Briefing, a weekly newsletter on disinformation and influence operations for more than 7.000 European experts, journalists and officials. She participated in the Transatlantic Fellowship Program in Washington DC organized by the World Affairs Journal, which she spent at the office of Senator Rob Portman. She has graduated from the New Security Leaders Program 2017.

Steven Blockmans

Senior Research Fellow, CEPS (Belgium)

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Steven Blockmans is a senior research fellow and the head of the ‘EU foreign policy’ and ‘politics and institutions’ units of CEPS. His expertise lies at the crossroads of international and EU law and governance. Steven is and one of the founding members of the Centre for the Law of EU External Relations (CLEER). Before joining CEPS, he was head of the department of research at the T.M.C. Asser Institute, the Hague. For more than 15 years, he has combined his academic and lecturing work (University of Leuven, Leiden University, University of Amsterdam, European Institute of Public Administration) with contract research carried out for EU and national donors, consultancy activities and training for professionals. Steven holds a PhD in law from Leiden University, MA in Public International Law, Leiden University, Diploma in Political and Social Sciences, Institut d’Études Politiques, Paris.

Amb. Shota Gvineria

Senior Fellow, Economic Policy Research Center (Georgia)

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With 16 years of progressive working experience in the government sector, mainly in foreign relations and security policy areas, Amb. Shota Gvineria held senior management positions in national government agencies and missions abroad, including Deputy Secretary of National Security Council of Georgia (2017 – 2018), Ambassador at Large for NATO & Security Policy at Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2016 – 2017) Foreign Policy Advisor to the Minister of Defense of Georgia (2015 – 2016), Ambassador of Georgia to the Kingdom of the Netherlands (2010 – 2014) and other. Participated in design and implementation processed of Georgia’s reform agenda and possesses expert knowledge of integration processes with European and Euro-Atlantic structures. He is a graduate of National Defense University, Washington DC, Diplomatic School of Madrid, Spain 2004 – 2005 (Master’s in strategic security studies, International security affairs and combating terrorism) and Georgian Technical University, Tbilisi.

Rosian Vasiloi

Security Analyst, Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (Moldova)

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Rosian Vasiloi, the 45-year-old retired colonel from Moldova’s Border Police (former Deputy Head of the Border Police Department) who worked also for the OSCE mission in Bishkek and The Nonproliferation & Security Sector Strategic Business Unit of URS Federal Services International Inc. (URSFSII). He is now a security and military analyst associate to the Chisinau-based Institute for Development and Social Initiatives – IDIS Viitorul. Research areas: Security Policies, Border management and Migration policies, Crisis management, Risk Management and Analysis, Strategic Communications and Conflict resolutions. He is the author of the publications on Russia’s impact on the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, information warfare and settlement of the Transnistrian conflict.

Roland Freudenstein

Policy Director, Wilfried Martens Center for European Studies (Belgium)

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Roland Freudenstein was born in Bonn, Germany. After a two year voluntary military service, he studied political science, economics, Japan studies and international relations in Bonn and Los Angeles. Having worked as a research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, he became a member of the foreign and security planning staff of the European Commission in Brussels in the 1990s. Subsequently, he became the director of the Warsaw office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation and later held a leading function in the Foundation’s central office in Berlin. After coming back to Brussels in 2004, he represented the German city state of Hamburg to the EU. Roland Freudenstein has been, since 2008, Head of Research and Deputy Director of the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies and, since October 2015, its Policy Director.

Ambassador Reka Szemerkenyi

Vice President of CEPA (USA)

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Ambassador Réka Szemerkényi is executive Vice President of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). From 2015 to 2017, Szemerkényi was Hungary’s first woman ambassador to the United States. She was chief advisor in foreign and security policy to the prime minister of Hungary (2011-15), state secretary for foreign and security policy in the prime minister’s office (1998-2002) and senior advisor to the state secretary in the Ministry of Defense (1991-94), at the time of Hungary’s efforts to join NATO and the Kosovo war. Szemerkényi was a university lecturer, foreign affairs op-ed writer, director of foreign policy programs of the 21st Century Research Institute in Budapest (2002-06). Szemerkényi earned a PhD summa cum laude in economic history (Pázmány Péter Catholic University (2006), a master’s degree in strategic studies (Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington, D.C. (1993-95), a master’s in international relations from the Institut Européen des Hautes Études Internationales in Nice, France (1990-91), and from ELTE University Budapest (1985-1990). Szemerkényi is an elected member of the European Council on Foreign Relations since 2016 and serves as vice president of the Hungarian Atlantic Council.

Prof. Dovile Jakniunaite

Vilnius University (Lithuania)

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Dr. Dovile Jakniunaite is professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science of Vilnius University and head of the Institute’s Department of International Relations. She specialises in foreign policy analysis, security studies, border studies, territorial conflicts and separatism, EU Eastern Partnership policy. She is the author of the books on Georgia’s territorial conflicts (2017) and Russia’s neighbourhood policy (2007), editor of monograph on Lithuanian foreign policy (2016). She is currently working on the role of borders in secessionist movements, future of the EU foreign policy and contributing to the Horizon 2020 project on the EU and Eastern Partnership countries.

Oleksandr Sushko

Executive Director Renaissance Foundation (Ukraine)

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Olexandr Sushko is the Executive Director of the Renaissance Foundation since January 2018. He has a PhD in politology in the sphere of international relations from the Institute of world economics and international relations of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. He worked as a monitoring coordinator and director of the Centre of peace, conversion and foreign policy of Ukraine, as a senior fellow of the Institute of world economics and international relations. He became Head of the Board of the Renaissance Foundation since 2011. In 2012 he was appointed as National coordinator of the Ukrainian national platform of the Civil Society Forum “Eastern Partnership” In 2014 he was elected co-head of the civil society platform “Ukraine-EU”, which is a civil society organization envisaged by art. 469-470 of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU.

Dr. Nerijus Maliukevičius

Expert, university lecturer (Lithuania)

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Dr. Nerijus Maliukevičius is the leading Lithuanian expert in information warfare, strategic communication and conflict management as well as Russian studies. He is the author of two books about Russian information warfare strategies. He works as scientific researcher and lecturer in the Institute of International Relations and Political Science (Vilnius University). He lectures in General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania. His PhD thesis focused on the potential and spread of Russian informational geopolitics in Lithuania.

Natalia Ishchenko

Deputy Director of the Institute of World Policy

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Natalia Ischenko started to work in political journalism in 1994 and was a correspondent for leading Ukrainian mass media. From the late 1990’s until mid-2010 he worked in the field of political and media consulting. Since 2014, she is an active volunteer in the field of information. In 2014, she was one of the curators of the photo exhibition Donbass: “War and Peace”, which was exhibited in the European Parliament in Brussels and in other European capitals. In 2016, she was one of the organizers of the international program to study Croatia’s experience of peaceful reintegration of the occupied territories. She is a permanent contributor of the Day newspaper, writes for Uryadovy Kuryer and the Internet web-site Evropeiska Pravda. She also makes research for think tanks. Field of study – conflicts in the post-Soviet space and in the former Yugoslavia; media and communications. In 2017, she became the winner of the James Mace Award for a civic position in journalism.

Lyubomyr Ferens

Journalist, Hromadske Radio (Ukraine)

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Lyubomyr Ferens works as a journalist, editor and presenter of the programs “Hromadska hvylia” and “Rankova hvylia”at Hromadkse radio. He worked as a journalist at the TV channels TVi and Crimean-Tatar channel ATR and also for the Slidstvo.Info program.

Lt Col British Army (Retired) Glen Grant

Military expert (UK)

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Glen Grant is a defence expert working for the Ukrainian Institute For the Future and the UK Institute For Statecraft. He is a former British Artillery Officer. Glen Grant gained his military experience from a wide range of activities including exchange with the Swedish Army, commanding the military prison, working in four different Brigade Headquarters’ and policy and operational work in UK, Germany and NATO. He was defence attache in three countries. Glen has a masters degree in Change Management. Since leaving the forces he has been working in business and the public sector as a transformation consultant. He has also worked in over 10 countries providing defence reform. Glen is a former international athlete holding a national Wales record at 1500m and now coaches endurance sports.

Edward Lucas

Vice-president at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) (USA)

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Edward Lucas is a writer and consultant specialising in European and transatlantic security. His expertise also includes energy, cyber-security, espionage, information warfare and Russian foreign and security policy. Formerly a senior editor at The Economist, the world’s foremost newsweekly, he now writes a weekly column in the London Times. In 2008 he wrote The New Cold War, a prescient account of Vladimir Putin’s Russia, followed in 2011 by Deception, an investigative account of east-west espionage. His latest book is Cyberphobia. An experienced broadcaster, public speaker, moderator and panelist, Edward Lucas has given public lectures at Harvard, Oxford, Cambridge and other leading universities. He is a regular contributor to the BBC’s Today and Newsnight programmes, and to NPR, CNN and Sky News. For many years a foreign correspondent, he was based in Berlin, Prague, Vienna, Moscow and the Baltic states.

Dr. Anke Schmidt-Felzmann

FPRI Baltic Sea Fellow and Think Visegrad Fellow at OSW (Poland)

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Dr. Anke Schmidt-Felzmann @anke_sf is a Swedish-German researcher, focusing on European security and EU/NATO relations with Russia. She is currently a (non-resident) FPRI Baltic Sea Fellow @FPRI @balticbulletin and a visiting #Think Visegrad Fellow, based at the Centre for Eastern Studies @OSW_eng in Warsaw. She holds a PhD from the University of Glasgow (UK). As a post-doctoral researcher at Stockholm University and at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI) she has investigated the EU’s trade disputes and energy market conflicts with Russia. She has lectured on security policy and the EU at the Military Academy of Lithuania, the Polish Land Forces University in Wroclaw, the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) in Trondheim, Dalarna University in Falun and Maastricht University in the Netherlands. Her publications investigate the EU-Russia relationship, energy supply security (incl. NS2), the Eastern Partnership and Baltic Sea security with a particular focus on the security challenges from Russia.

Bruno Lété

Security and Defense Senior Fellow, GMF (Belgium)

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Bruno Lété currently serves as a senior fellow of security and defense at The German Marshall Fund of the United States in Brussels. He focuses primarily on the EU Common Security & Defense Policy, NATO, and developments in Central and Eastern Europe. In 2010, Lété joined the European Union Delegation to the United States in Washington, DC, where he supported the political, security, and development section and focused on U.S. foreign policy and EU–U.S. relations. He started his career in 2007 as a program associate for the German Marshall Fund, where he helped developed GMF’s signature policy conferences such as Brussels Forum. Lété studied at the University of Ghent in Belgium and at Collegium Civitas in Warsaw, Poland. He holds a bachelor’s in communication management and a master’s in international relations. He appears regularly in the media and is the author of frequent opinion pieces and policy briefs. In 2008 he was made a John C. Whitehead Fellow by the Foreign Policy Association in New York City.

Barbora Maronkova

Director at NATO Information and Documentation Centre (Ukraine)

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Barbora Moronkova is the Director of NATO Information and Documentation Centre in Kyiv, Ukraine since March 2017. Previously she worked for NATO’s Press and Media office, program manager for the Western Balkans where she designed, planned and implemented public diplomacy campaigns about joining the NATO and program coordinator to raise awareness and promote NATO in a number of NATO member states in the NATO Public Diplomacy Division in Brussels, Belgium. In 2003, she established and headed the Slovak-based NGO Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs to contribute to public and academic debate on Slovakia’s membership to the EU and NATO. She holds a degree from the University of Economics of Bratislava, Slovak Republic and a Public Affairs diploma from the Chartered Institute for Public Relations in the UK. She currently serves as a non-resident Research Fellow with the USC Center on Public Diplomacy.

Serhiy Harmash

Editor in Chief of the Internet newspaper Ostrov (Ukraine)

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Serhiy Harmash is the editor in chief of the Internet newspaper Ostrov. He holds a degree from the Institue of Journalism of the Kyiv National Shevchenko University. He worked as a journalist of various nespapers and radio channels, including the Radio Liberty (Radio Svoboda) and Interfax Ukraine in the Donetsk region.

Maria Zavyalova

Editor in Chief of the news service, Chanel 4 (Ukraine)

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Mariya Zavyalova is the editor in chief of the news service of the Ukrainian Chanle 4. Previously she worked as a reporter for Voice of America and other mass media, fixer for Aljazeera Arabic during the Maidan, producer and owner of the video production studio, journalist and news anchor at Hromadske radio. She has extensive experience of highlighting the events in the Eastern Ukraine. Sha graduated from the Kyiv international institute with a degree in philology.

Mark Voyger

Senior Lecturer in Russian and Eastern European Studies at the Baltic Defence College in Tartu (Estonia)

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Mr. Mark Voyger is currently the Senior Lecturer in Russian and Eastern European Studies at the Baltic Defence College in Tartu, Estonia. In 2013 – 2018 he served as the Special Advisor for Russian and Eurasian Affairs to the Commanding General of US Army Europe in Wiesbaden, Germany, and as the Cultural Advisor and Senior Russia Expert at NATO’s Allied Land Command in Izmir, Turkey. Between 2009 and 2013 he was deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan as a U.S. Army Social Scientist. He worked for Mitt Romney’s Presidential Campaigns in 2007 and in 2012 as a member of the Russia Advisory Group. Mr. Voyger holds a Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy degree from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and a Master of Public Administration degree from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, and has done Ph.D. research in Middle Eastern Studies at Cambridge University. He is fluent in Russian, Ukrainian, Bulgarian, Arabic, Turkish, French, Spanish and Italian.

Mykhaylo Basarab

Political analyst, analytical group Korner Solutions (Ukraine)

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Born in Drohobych, Lviv region. Graduated from Taras Shevchenko national university, major in politology. Received PhD at Institute of political and ethnical national studies of the National Academy of Sciences. Since 2000 he works in political consulting, especially on communication strategies. Author of numerous publications. Regularly comments political processes and international relations in media. He takes active part in public discussion of the draft laws related to occupied territories. He is one of the initiators of the public campaign “No to amendments to Constitution under conditions of war” He was also one of the founders of the civic movement “Shut Kremlin’s mouth” which counteracts hidden Russian media in Ukraine.

Victor Rud

The Chair of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of Ukrainian American Bar Association (USA)

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Victor Rud is an international lawyer with 35 years experience. Before the fall of the Soviet Union he represented, in the West, political prisoners persecuted by the KGB. He also served as Special Counsel to a member of the US Delegation to the Madrid Review Conference on Security & Cooperation in Europe. After the fall of USSR, Mr. Rud advised members of the new Ukrainian Parliament, and has written and addressed various audiences on issues of US/Ukrainian/Russian relations. He is past Chairman of the Ukrainian American Bar Association, and currently chairs its Committee on Foreign Affairs. Mr. Rud received his undergraduate degree in international relations from Harvard College, and his Juris Doctor degree from Duke University School of Law.

Vladimir Socor

Senior Fellow of Jamestown Foundation (Germany)

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Vladimir Socor is a Senior Fellow of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation and its flagship publication, Eurasia Daily Monitor (1995 to date), where he writes analytical articles on a daily basis. An internationally recognized expert on the former Soviet-ruled countries in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia, he covers Russian and Western policies there, focusing on energy policies, regional security issues, secessionist conflicts, and NATO policies and programs. He is a regular guest lecturer at the NATO Defense College and at Harvard University’s National Security Program’s Black Sea Program (JFKennedy School of Government). Vladimir Socor was previously an analyst with the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Research Institute (1983-1994). He was born in Romania, currently residing in Munich.

Denys Kazanskyi

Journalist, blogger (Ukraine)

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Born in 1984. In 2006 he graduated from the Tugan Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of economy and trade. Became famous as blogger under the nickname Frankensstein. He also worked in Donetskaya Pravda magazine, which published his journalistic investigations and analytics.

Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges

Commander of NATO Allied Land Command (USA)

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Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges graduated from the United States Military Academy in May 1980 and was commissioned in the Infantry. After his first assignment as an Infantry Lieutenant in Germany, he commanded Infantry units at the Company, Battalion and Brigade levels at the 101st Airborne Division and in Operation IRAQI FREEDOM. His most recent operational assignment was as Director of Operations, Regional Command South, in Kandahar, Afghanistan. Lt. Gen. Hodges has also served in a variety of Joint and Army Staff positions to include Tactics Instructor at the Infantry School; Chief of Plans, 2nd Infantry Division in Korea; Aide-de-Camp to the Supreme Allied Commander Europe; Army Congressional Liaison Officer; Task Force Senior Observer-Controller at the Joint Readiness Training Center, Fort Polk, LA; Chief of Staff, XVIII Airborne Corps at Fort Bragg; and Director of the Pakistan Afghanistan Coordination Cell on the Joint Staff; Chief of Legislative Liaison for the United States Army. He has been the Commander of NATO Allied Land Command from 2012 to 2014.

Mr. Glen Howard

President of Jamestown Foundation (USA)

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Mr. Howard is fluent in Russian and proficient in Azerbaijani and Arabic, and is a regional expert on the Caucasus and Central Asia. He was formerly an Analyst at the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) Strategic Assessment Center. His articles have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, and Jane’s Defense Weekly. Mr. Howard has served as a consultant to private sector and governmental agencies, including the U.S. Department of Defense, the National Intelligence Council and major oil companies operating in Central Asia and the Middle East.

Oksana Syroyid

Vice Speaker of the Parliament of Ukraine (Ukraine)

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As an MP worked on draft laws on judicial reform, reform of police and prosecution, local self-government reform, as well as actively participated in the work of the Constitutional Commission established in March 2015. She dedicates much of her time to defence and security issues, having contributed a draft law “On the Territory of Ukraine temporary Occupied by Russian Federation”. Oksana Syroid has previously has worked as Director of All-Ukrainian Charitable Foundation “Ukrainian Legal Foundation”. In 2004-2012 she was the National Project Manager and the Head of Rule of Law Unit at OSCE office in Ukraine. In 2001-2002 she worked in Secretariat of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. She is a lecturer at the National School of Judges of Ukraine, co-author of handbooks in the area of administrative justice, as well as associate professor of the Law Faculty at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy and a co-founder of Kyiv-Mohyla School of Public Administration. Oksana Syroid holds Master degree in Laws at University of Ottawa, Ottawa and Taras Shevchenko Kyiv National University and Bachelor degree in Political sciences at National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.

Mykhaylo Honchar

President of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy ХХІ" (Ukraine)

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Mykhaylo Honchar has over 31 year of professional experience which includes service in the air forces, civil service in the National Defence and Security Council of Ukraine, scientific work at the National institute of strategic studies and National institute of the problems of international security at the National Defence and Security Council of Ukraine. In 2000s he held several positions in oil and gas industry. He holds the honorary award from the “Naftohas Ukrayiny” for his work. Mr Honchar was also the expert of the ukrainian part of the intergovernmental commissions on economic cooperation with Germany, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. He is the author, co-author and editor of the numerous publications on energy sector issues and international relations. Since 2016 he is the member of the National Commission on industry. Since 2017 he is the acting editor of the “Black Sea Security” magazine. He is the associated fellow of the Razumkov Center and the Center of Russian Studies.

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26 October

Building effective army model in current security conditions

Glen Grant, Former Lt. Colonel at British Army (UK) at Lviv Security Forumon reforming of ukrainian…

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Glen Grant, Former Lt. Colonel at British Army (UK) at Lviv Security Forumon reforming of ukrainian army:

Talking about armed forces we have to accept where we are. Compared to 2014 the frontline is really good – the most of boys are still alive. We are still losing too many lives, but despite attacks boys are alive and we are also recapturing land. But my thought is that since that time the big system has not changed.

And there are three points:

  1. Operational focus. There should by focus on mobility. Russians are always beaten by mobility. They have never been beaten by full-scale warfare. When you are focused on mobility it drives other things – almost everything. Especially people who fight and command – they are getting better. Education system is still not designed for mobility warfare. It is still soviet. International partners should concentrate in this area since it will have a long-term influence.
  2. 2. Structures. Current structures were designed for soviet type of warfare. You fight and lots of people die. And that was ok. These structures are not designed for mobile warfare. There is not enough staff in general staff. We have joined headquarters for Donbas, but none for Azov, South or Kyiv. One person cannot possibly control everything and general Muzhenko as well. No person can do it. Ukraine needs proper headquarters – joint headquarters that work and analyze situation 24 hours day. And it cannot be Muzhenko. One man cannot run your system especially if he has to wait for decision of the president weather to start shooting. You cannot run army on the phone.

We should concentrate on what we have and spend our energy on improving it. Spending money generally on reforms doesn’t work. We have to ask people on the ground what they need. We have to make sure that each brigade is being supported and this support is getting better. The principle must be “Every day better!”

3.Decentralization of budget. You cannot manage, if you cannot spend money. The officer has to have money to make his job proper. If you don’t trust these people with money, then what are they doing on the frontline defending your country?

Another issue is how to get people into army. We can have a long debate on whether conscription system works. But people without equipment are not an army. You cannot make someone fight without providing them with all equipment.

And finally. If you have leadership in army – people will come.

Amb. Shota Gvineria, Senior Fellow, Economic Policy Research Center (Georgia)

Situations of Georgia and Ukraine are similar in many ways:
1) the wars going on in Ukraine and Georgia are the same war for Russia – the war for influence in the region;

2) war in 2008 was only a small episode of a hybrid war going on since the independence of Georgia.

Comprehensive approach towards security is a must as hybrid warfare is the new normal and it will not go away. We need to make ourselves resilient to this constant fight.

Since Russia is using all elements of national power against the adversary, we need to adopt a total defence approach where non-governmental sector, private sector and state work together to counteract the immense pressure coming at us.

Georgia has a very strong civil society, which in some cases is even leading the process. The private sector, however, still does not really understand the importance of joint action. More secure environment enhancing trade, capacities against cyber attacks are to name a few arguments of how the private sector will benefit from participating in a defence as they may be a target as well.

We need to stop thinking about NATO in terms of black and white, joining or not joining. The integration process itself is bringing huge benefits to the countries in terms of legislation and standards harmonization.

Pavel Rozhko, Lieutenant Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the Lviv Security Forum 2018:

I would like to draw attention to the need to build an effective mobile army model. Mobility in the army depends on all systems, especially on the system of management.
Therefore, the reformation of the Armed Forces should not begin from the bottom or from the top, but should go in parallel – reform of the army management system, reform of the units, and also preparation the units and the system of combat training.

The current situation in the East of Ukraine is very delayed. We have to draw conclusions. There must be some kind of political decision, and, I think, the Armed Forces are ready to fulfill the task.

Mark Voyger, Senior lecturer in Eastern European and Russian Studies at the Baltic Defense College in Tartu (Estonia), at Lviv Security Forum 2018:

A reform of armed forces in Ukraine cannot exist in vacuum. It has to be a reaction on Russian war strategy. Russian goal is not to allow any neighboring country, Ukraine especially, to be economically stable and successful.

General Gerasimov, head of general staff of Russian armed forces, has named three principles of their war strategy:

– Hybrid war is a blitzkrieg of the future.

– Hybrid war allows aggressor to deprive the victim of aggression its sovereignty

– In future purely hybrid can go without conventional tools, but conventional warfare will always involve hybrid

Russian armed forces have established a new term of “integrated forces” which provide for integration of conventional and hybrid forced. Our analysis has shown that Ukraine in a testing ground of this new concept. Ukrainian armed forces is the only army in Europe fighting these new integrated forces. Europe has a lot to learn from you since you have proven general Gerasimov wrong.

When talking about Ukraine joining NATO I have no doubt that this will happen. But you have to look through experience of Baltic states. They have limited defense forces, but they have other things from which they can draw strength. In Estonia they have established Defense league where citizens and even foreigners are trained and gathered on regular basis in order to master their skills. Defense league is a strong component which Ukraine should consider.

And finally, your armed forces have to master English fluently. You cannot join NATO and be an effective member, if your military are not able to communicate freely with their counterparts from other countries.

Stepan Yakymyak, Сhair of Naval Forces Department of Ivan Chernyakhovskyi National Defence University, Captain 1st rank at Lviv Security Forum 2018:

Experience is what we should take into account when developing Armed Forces of Ukraine. A few related facts and rhetorical questions:

The Crimea was occupied from the sea. How it influenced the national security priorities?

The Naval Forces of Ukraine lost over 75% of their resources in the Crimea – human, infrastructural, other. And what impact did it have on the review of the order of resources supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine?

Ukraine lost over 60% of the exclusive maritime economic zone. What other state in the world has lately lost as much and in the “peaceful times”?

Ineffective state policy regarding the integration of the peninsula in the all-national culture and spiritual space was the main reasons of the losses in Crimea. How is it taken account in the current activities of the state?

 

 

26 October

Policy towards occupied territories: how to prevent new «grey zones» evolving

Nataliya Ishchenko, ukrainian journalist and political scientist at Lviv Security Forum 2018: With regards to…

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Nataliya Ishchenko, ukrainian journalist and political scientist at Lviv Security Forum 2018:

With regards to the experience in the post-Soviet area, Moldova and Georgia, one must learn from the mistakes of others. These are the two different examples of how things should not be done.

For example, in Moldova there is a creeping reintegration of this enclave. What relates to Georgia the program of peaceful reintegration of territories is being implemented there with the support of the international community. This program, which has been implemented over the past few years, has provoked even greater rejection of the occupied territories.

As soon as Georgia adopted the relevant laws, decisions and began to implement a program of approximation of these territories, Russia has taken very hard steps of cutting off these territories from Georgia. Even visually it is clear. They began to build borders. On the borders of Abkhazia and Ossetia there are no border guards. There are FSB troops, which are also Russian border guards. Their presence there is official. They did this when Georgia was allegedly trying to reintegrate peacefully. They received a reverse effect.

In Ukraine, the civil society and politicians simply did not let it happen. That’s why it did not happen. But now Russian propagandists began to write: “Why do not Ukrainians behave like Georgians?”

If we resigned in 2014 after Ilovajsk or in 2015, after Debaltsevo, this plan would be implemented. But for some reason we began to resist, and this did not happen. And, I think, now the chances of realization of this scenario are lower than in 2014-2015 years”.

Rosian Vasiloi, security analyst, Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (Moldova) at Lviv Security Forum 2018:

During 27 years of Russian aggression in Transnistria Moldova has not recognized this fact. Only in 2017 Constitutional court recognized Russian troops in Transnistria. However, the government did not adopt any acts as a reaction on this decision.

We have to recognize that Russian aggression has two components in Moldova – external and internal. Internal component consists of our domestic actors supporting separatist regime in Transnistria.
In 2017 a number NGOs in Moldova presented an analysis about occupation troops in Moldova with direct reference to international law and decisions of UN Court of Justice. However, our national authorities still do not recognize occupation.

Moreover, our government implements the so-called “strategy of small steps”, provides for re-integration people instead of re-integration of the territory. The strategy of small steps is just providing occupied territories with sovereignty which is a great trap for Moldova. Our Moldovan experience of occupied territories makes me say it out loud to my Ukrainian friends: “Do not repeat our mistakes!”

Roman Bezsmertny, politician, public figure at Lviv Security Forum 2018:

There is nothing stronger than action. Speaking about European perspectives, how many commitments have we taken on ourselves? And how many have embodied? So “the action”, gentlemen. ”The Action” at the Minsk negotiations, “the action” at the front, “the action” in the rear.

In the current situation, things are very well manifested, which can become the basis for “the action”. This applies not only to the Donbas, but to almost all the points of tension that we are talking about today.

If I were asked what I would do, then I would do two things these days – I would suggest Kurt Volker head the Ukrainian delegation in Minsk and do everything possible to make the owner of the Ukrainian GTS either “Halliburton” or somebody else.

 

25 October

Propaganda – Leading asymmetric wars

Mykhaylo Basarab, political expert, analytical group «Korner Solutions» (Ukraine) at Lviv Security Forum 2018: Everything…

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Mykhaylo Basarab, political expert, analytical group «Korner Solutions» (Ukraine) at Lviv Security Forum 2018:

Everything what Russia is doing in Ukraine and in the West is enough to understand that global war is already on. Energy, politics, propaganda – Russian intervention is all over these spheres.

Russia is doing its best to more or less comply with law: it corrupts politicians, who are getting paid from Russia, so called media are using freedom of speech in order to produce disinformation. That’s the way Russia is working with minds.

Russian propaganda is intensifying confrontation in societies. Russians are using divisive topics: racial issues and gun control in the US, Euroscepticism and euroloyalism in Europe, in Ukraine – language, history and other issues that facilitate confrontation.

EU is taking some measures to confront it – media education, refutation of fake news, etc. But we don’t have time to do these things.

We have to do everything possible to destroy the center that spreads propaganda. We have to make sure that Putin has no money to spread lies.

One more thing – we have to wake up, because China is silently using Russia in order to get into our backyard. And realizing it is very important.

Veronika Vichova, European Values Foundation (Czech Republic) at Lviv Security forum 2018:

People don’t get that propaganda is not only disinformation. It is also connected to political corruption, abusing minorities, conducting acts of espionage. We have to have a comprehensive strategy in order to fight it. Not many countries take that approach.

Baltic countries took strategic approach cooperating closely with civil society and private entities in order to combat propaganda. Their governments also have political will not only to recognize propaganda, but also seek stronger support within EU.

Similar cases can be found in Scandinavian countries. Swedish government, for instance, took measures to prevent possible election meddling, because electoral process is probably the most vulnerable place.

Another group within Europe – the so-called “awakened countries”. They already were affected by Russian propaganda and started to recognize it. For example – Czech Republic. The government made solid review of security area, consulted civil society, established an action plan for fighting propaganda.

Finally, there are countries in denial of Russian propaganda or collaborating with Russia. In order to work with them more actions from EU and NATO are needed.

Victor Rud – The Chair of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of Ukrainian American Bar Association (USA):

Russia is very good at strategic deception. We in the West are also involved in strategic deception, but we mostly do it to ourselves.

Most Western leaders continuously made a massive mistake by making the equivalent between Russia and the USSR. Putin took it and utilized it: the West always called Russia USSR, so we are gathering our lands.

Question: why do we transfer without a second thought ideas belonging to the West to Russia when it doesn’t work. The experience of the West with Russia was never acute or long enough to be embedded in the Western population. We are still unprepared to believe the unbelievable. Listen to the victims, to the truthtellers. West has historically ignored and ridiculed them. Let’s start giving attention to the criminal.

In 2000, it was clear who Putin was and what his goal was to the West. So, the notion of sending sleeping bags to Ukraine on a civilian plane not on a military is all that was necessary for Putin to understand Obama’s mentality.

The NKGB had tortured people for them to confess to a lie – “a slaughter of the mind”, a reality reversal. The Kremlin has been an expert on it for centuries, it allowed them to develop an empire and control it. In Ukraine the

Russia has reached a virtual destruction of the national ethos, a national Stockholm syndrome. Only recently an opposite process begun.

 

Nerijus Maliukevičius (Vilnius Institute of International Relations and Political Science) at Lviv Security Forum 2018:

There is an abundance of tools in countering propaganda. What we are sometimes lacking is the political will to tackle it. And it is probably more true with regard to the Western states.

Sweden and Lithuania found that the answer to propaganda is social resilience. A resilient society is knowledgeable about the existing threats, capable and empowered to act against them. Resilience is built from trust in institutions but also from trust in your neighbors.

The study has discovered vulnerabilities that expose states to disinformation attacks: low political trust, soviet nostalgia, vague representation of Russian threat in the public discourse (no practical tools delivered to society to tackle it), low level of civil participation and integration of national minorities.

What Russia does is not so much an informational warfare, it’s a war against information. Russia is trying to brake our democracy through a war against journalism and electoral systems. So, the solution is in reinforcing media competences, enriching school education with full course on informational security and social networks.

 

25 October

Situation in Azov Sea – economic, security and social challenge

Lt. Gen. (ret.) Ben Hodges co-chair at Lviv Security Forum 2018: Black sea region may…

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Lt. Gen. (ret.) Ben Hodges co-chair at Lviv Security Forum 2018:

Black sea region may be more strategically important to Russia than the Baltics. The annexation of Crimea provided Russia with a launching point to the Mediterranean and Eurasia.

Russia threatens even the Danube river, which flows through 8 European countries. Therefore, Ukraine’s maritime contribution to the security in the region has to increase.

Ihor Kabanenko, President of UA.RPA company at Lviv Security Forum 2018:

Situation in the Azov Sea will be worsening, because while Russia implements and improves its well developed strategy and we are simply not present there. At Azov Sea, there are two dozen of State Border Service patrol boats. However, their main place is near the berths. This is a completely disastrous strategy.

A principled issue of the Azov Sea is that Ukraine had to unilaterally determine its territorial waters and maritime economic zone already yesterday – nothing prevents it from doing so, these are the sovereign rights of a coastal country according to the UN Convention. Still, it remains unclear why these rights are not yet executed.

The sea is a whole different psychology, different mentality, other ways of counteractions. We are simply loosing our sea, our sovereign rights. There can be no vacuum at sea. The naval geopolitics is not a place for slogans or calls for actions, it is productive. Waiting means loosing.

Glen Howard, President of Jamestown foundation at Lviv Security Forum 2018:
A Year ago during Lviv security forum 2017 I alarmed the situation in Azov sea. Ukrainian government didn’t even consider Russian actions there as an issue.

It took 1 year to raise awareness and now government’s position is that Ukraine needs serious naval presence in the region. International awareness is also crucial. Secretary general to NATO Jens Stoltenberg recognized that Russia should acknowledge Ukraine’s rights in Azov sea.

Every country has a strategy. Some countries have strategy to do nothing. Until recently Ukraine had such strategy towards sea of Azov and Black sea. Currently there is understanding within Ukrainian government that there should be a strategy.

Ukrainian navy 1st operational mission in Azov sea that took place in Sep 2018 shows a huge development. A new generation of UA navy is born.

Oleksandr Regula who witnessed Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014 as a student of Naval Academy in Sevastopol is a great example. Now he is 23 and a captain of artillery boat in Azov.

Freedom of navigation is crucial in BlackSea region – US has to show their presence in it. However, 1936 Montreux Convention should be reconsidered. It prevents any non-BlackSea nation from staying in the sea for more than 21 days, thus US actions are much restricted.

 

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